KEY

1-10% = Extremely Unlikely
10-25% = Very Unlikely
25-40% = Unlikely
40-60% = Reasonable Prospects
60-75% = Likely
75-90% = Very Likely
90-100% = Extremely Likely

As of 15 September 2022, a settlement is ‘very unlikely’ in the near future. There was substantive negotiation in March 2022 through the Istanbul Process, and the parties were very close to reaching an agreement. Towards the end of March, Russia reoriented its military objectives to achieve effective control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine. Since then, constructive discussions have been limited to humanitarian issues, grain exports, and independent monitoring and security of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site. In the longer-term, while Russia’s military aims appear achievable, a settlement continues to be very unlikely. The recent successes of Ukrainian counterattacks and the threat of protracted local resistance in the Donbas and other occupied territories may raise prospects for a settlement in the future.

“Over the past few weeks, many of us have been grappling with the question of how the University of Cambridge can help – not only to mitigate the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, but to contribute meaningfully to peace in the region. The Ukraine Peace Settlement Project shows that our scholars’ expertise can have an impact that extends far beyond the academic realm. Although all concerned acknowledge that an agreement is difficult to envision at this time, it is crucially important for background work to commence. The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. The Project is a tangible and necessary contribution to the resolution of a brutal war.”

Professor Stephen J. Toope, Vice Chancellor of the University of Cambridge