KEY

1-10% = Extremely Unlikely
10-25% = Very Unlikely
25-40% = Unlikely
40-60% = Reasonable Prospects
60-75% = Likely
75-90% = Very Likely
90-100% = Extremely Likely

As of 15 July 2024, a settlement remains ‘unlikely’ in the near future. The sides were close to an agreement through the Istanbul Process in March 2022. When peace talks broke down, Russia reoriented its military objectives to secure control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine. Since then, negotiations have been limited to humanitarian issues, prisoner exchanges, grain exports, and nuclear security. More states have sought to facilitate negotiations after China released its 12-point position paper in February 2023. And there has been recent comments from both conflict parties to suggest an openess to talks, even though there remains a significant impasse over territory and military withdrawal. In the longer term, ongoing costs from the conflict and protracted resistance may raise settlement prospects given the difficulty of achieving a clear military victory. International support for the ongoing war efforts will also play a significant role. Although US Congress has approved further military aid to Ukraine, concerns about waning international support for Ukraine’s war effort remain, especially given the attention on the Gaza War, and the potential for a shift in US foreign policy after the next US Presidential election.

“Over the past few weeks, many of us have been grappling with the question of how the University of Cambridge can help – not only to mitigate the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, but to contribute meaningfully to peace in the region. The Ukraine Peace Settlement Project shows that our scholars’ expertise can have an impact that extends far beyond the academic realm. Although all concerned acknowledge that an agreement is difficult to envision at this time, it is crucially important for background work to commence. The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. The Project is a tangible and necessary contribution to the resolution of a brutal war.”

Professor Stephen J. Toope, Vice Chancellor of the University of Cambridge