This initiative offers settlement options to conflict parties and those supporting them in the search for peace.

A settlement is possible

Ukraine Peace Settlement Project

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Draft Settlement 9

Settlement Options 9

Key Documents 9

Negotiation News 9

Additional Resources 9

SETTLEMENT BAROMETER

KEY

1-10% = Extremely Unlikely
10-25% = Very Unlikely
25-40% = Unlikely
40-60% = Reasonable Prospects
60-75% = Likely
75-90% = Very Likely
90-100% = Extremely Likely

As of 15 January 2026, there are significant prospects for a settlement brokered by Donald Trump. The sides were close to an agreement through the Istanbul Process in March 2022, but peace talks broke down and negotiations were subsequently limited to humanitarian issues, prisoner exchanges, grain exports, and nuclear security, with significant impasses on territory, military withdrawal, security guarantees, and NATO expansion. While US President Trump has brought renewed impetus towards a settlement by reaching out to Russia and threatening to withdraw military cooperation with Ukraine, there are key sticking points that remain. Ukraine insists on a hard security guarantee to deter future military action by Russia, and Russia insists on recognition of its territorial claims (including de jure recognition of Crimea and cession of territory in the Donbas region). It remains to be seen whether Russia is willing to concede to any meaningful security guarantee; and whether Ukraine can offer territorial concessions that appease Russia’s appetite for military victory. In the longer term, the costs of renewed sanctions and protracted resistance may reinforce settlement prospects, given the difficulty of achieving a clear military victory.

Statement by the Vice Chancellor

“Over the past few weeks, many of us have been grappling with the question of how the University of Cambridge can help – not only to mitigate the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, but to contribute meaningfully to peace in the region. The Ukraine Peace Settlement Project shows that our scholars’ expertise can have an impact that extends far beyond the academic realm. Although all concerned acknowledge that an agreement is difficult to envision at this time, it is crucially important for background work to commence. The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. The Project is a tangible and necessary contribution to the resolution of a brutal war.”

Professor Stephen J. Toope, Vice Chancellor of the University of Cambridge

The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible.

Professor Stephen J. Toope