This initiative offers settlement options to conflict parties and those supporting them in the search for peace.

A settlement is possible

Ukraine Peace Settlement Project

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Draft Settlement 9

Settlement Options 9

Key Documents 9

Negotiation News 9

Additional Resources 9

SETTLEMENT BAROMETER

KEY

1-10% = Extremely Unlikely
10-25% = Very Unlikely
25-40% = Unlikely
40-60% = Reasonable Prospects
60-75% = Likely
75-90% = Very Likely
90-100% = Extremely Likely

As of 5 March 2025, a settlement is becoming more likely. The sides were close to an agreement through the Istanbul Process in March 2022, but peace talks broke down and negotiations were subsequently limited to humanitarian issues, prisoner exchanges, grain exports, and nuclear security, with significant impasses between the parties on territory, military withdrawal, and NATO expansion. This impasse persisted until the newly elected US President, Donald Trump, transformed US foreign policy on Ukraine. President Trump has brought significant pressure to bear on Ukraine to reach a settlement, and has commenced negotiations with the Russian side. Ukraine is concerned about the sustainability of its war effort without US aid and support, and this may lead to significant compromises at the negotiation table, despite calls from Western allies to ensure a just settlement that accounts for Russia’s role as the belligerent party. More generally, the ongoing costs from the conflict and protracted resistance are reinforcing settlement prospects for both sides, given the difficulty of achieving a clear military victory.

Statement by the Vice Chancellor

“Over the past few weeks, many of us have been grappling with the question of how the University of Cambridge can help – not only to mitigate the humanitarian tragedy in Ukraine, but to contribute meaningfully to peace in the region. The Ukraine Peace Settlement Project shows that our scholars’ expertise can have an impact that extends far beyond the academic realm. Although all concerned acknowledge that an agreement is difficult to envision at this time, it is crucially important for background work to commence. The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible. The Project is a tangible and necessary contribution to the resolution of a brutal war.”

Professor Stephen J. Toope, Vice Chancellor of the University of Cambridge

The ideas put forward through the Project will need to be discussed by Ukraine, Russia and all states seeking to promote peace as soon as the situation on the ground in Ukraine makes that possible.

Professor Stephen J. Toope