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In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a contribution to Opinio Juris by Prof Marc Weller considered what a possible settlement for Ukraine might look like. The aim was to show that a relatively condensed settlement could be possible, despite the ever more complex nature of the situation in Ukraine. That contribution also attempted to demonstrate a few ideas on how one might address some of the more difficult issue areas in a potential settlement.
This work remains useful, but the conflict has moved on since then. Any specific settlement proposal will need to reflect the relative configuration of the sides on the battlefield and in the wider political arena at the time. It is not possible to predict what the situation will be by the time the sides reach an eventual settlement. However, the parties and mediators may still find it helpful to see a fairly broad range of options for addressing key issue areas they face when constructing the actual settlement. Below we offer settlement options on most of the core issues for the sides. Since these papers were mostly prepared over the course of 2022, consideration should be given to how the key issues and options should be updated in light of current conditions.
Initial versions of these papers were published on Opinio Juris.
Background Paper: Implications of the Use of Force for a Political Settlement Marc Weller
Status of Ukraine (Neutrality) Marc Weller
New European Security Order Walter Kemp
Conditions for a Comprehensive Ceasefire and Withdrawal of Foreign Forces Robert Serry
Weapons of Mass Destruction Grant Dawson
Security Guarantees Marc Weller
Territory Marc Weller
Disengagement of Forces and Confidence and Security Building Measures Peter Jones
A Russia-Ukraine Claims Commission After the Armed Conflict Anonymous Expert
Ukrainian Pathways to the European Union Jed Odermatt
Dispute Settlement Mechanisms and Peace Agreements Stefan Wolff
Detainee Release and Exchange Cristina Teleki
Multilevel Peace Agreement Design: Dealing with Geopolitical Support Christine Bell
International Peace Operations Richard Gowan
Sanctions on Private Assets and Criminal Justice Processes Sara Elizabeth Dill and Layla Abi-Falah
Children Diane Marie Amann
Addressing Sexual Violence in the Ukraine Conflict Anne Marie Goetz
Reconciliation Elena Baylis
A Dynamic Political Settlement: Adapting to the Evolving Post-Agreement Context Simona Ross
Transparency and Inclusion in the Peace Process Tiina Pajuste
Transitional Justice Elisenda Calvet-Martínez
Information Operations Talita Dias
Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees Erin Mooney
Peace Stabilisation and Demilitarisation Peter Jones
Recovery Operations and International Commitments in Ukraine’s Settlement Process Ray Salvatore Jennings
Select Humanitarian Issues Nathalie Weizmann
War Crimes, Crimes Against Humanity, and Genocide Melanie O’Brien
Sanction Relief and Security Guarantees in the Ukraine Conflict Erica Moret
Energy Tibisay Morgandi
Language and Minority Rights Kristin Henrard
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