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Day After Plans

Larry Garber has published an opinion piece for the Middle East Institute on evaluating the various ‘Day After’ plans.

Our CIPS researcher, Jeffrey Liu, provides some analysis of postwar plans for Gaza:

CIVIL SOCIETY POSITIONS
OFFICIAL POSITIONS
 Israel
Palestine
  • State of Palestine, Gaza Relief and Early Recovery Plan: Emergency Response Program (Month 0-6), May 2024
Hamas
United States
  • In Tokyo, on 8 November 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken set out certain ‘key elements’ for durable peace and security – the Tokyo Principles. These included no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, no use of Gaza for terrorist attacks or threats, no reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict, no blockade or siege of Gaza, no reduction in territory of Gaza, the inclusion of the Palestinian people’s voices and aspirations in the post-crisis governance of Gaza, the Palestinian-led governance, Gaza unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority, a sustained mechanism for reconstruction in Gaza, and a pathway to Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in states of their own, with equal measures of security, freedom, opportunity, and dignity.
  • On 8 January 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia on normalization might be secured through commitment to a ‘practical pathway to a Palestinian state’.
  • The United States announced a comprehensive Roadmap to a Permanent Ceasefire on 31 May 2024 which was then adapted into UN Security Council Resolution 2735. It remains to be seen whether the parties will accept this roadmap.
  • On 8 June 2024, the United States issued a French-American Roadmap which expresses a commitment to a two state solution
Egypt
  • On 5 May 2024, Egypt and Qatar put forward a ceasefire proposal as mediators, which was approved by Hamas, but ultimately rejected by Israel.
  • The Egyptian proposal called for an initial ceasefire of up to two weeks during which Palestinian groups, including Hamas, would free 40-50 hostages, among them women, the sick and the elderly, in return for 120-150 Palestinians from Israeli prisons. Negotiations would continue on extending the ceasefire and further hostage and body release. Egypt and Qatar would work with all Palestinian factions, including Hamas, to agree on establishing a government of experts to rule Gaza and the West Bank for a transitional period, as Palestinian factions settle their disputes and agree on a road map to hold presidential and parliamentary elections.
  • Egypt expressed support for the three steps set out in the US Roadmap to a Permanent Ceasefire
European Union
  • On 22 January 2024, a 10-point roadmap advocated by Josep Borell was leaked to the press in connection with a Brussels Peace Summit. Subsequently, Josep Borell criticized the lack of engagement by Israel with the summit.
  • EUSR Koopmans signaled plans to engage with regional stakeholders to seek consensus on elements for a comprehensive regional settlement based on a two-state solution, potentially through a ‘Preparatory Peace Conference’ that can demonstrate the benefits and shape of a durable peace in the Middle East, supported by the international community, to the conflict parties, and become the basis for a revived peace process.
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
  • Saudi Arabia expressed full support for UN Security Council Resolution 2735
  • Officially, Saudi Arabia remains committed to its 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, and would establish diplomatic relations with Israel only after the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state. This was recently affirmed through the Arab League in the Bahrain Declaration and the Riyadh Statement arising from an Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit.
Türkiye
  • In February 2024, Türkiye proposed a two-state solution with itself acting as an international guarantor.
League of Arab States
  • The League of Arab States has expressed support for the Saudi-led 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. This was recently affirmed in the Bahrain Declaration, as well as the Riyadh Statement arising from an Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit. In the Bahrain Declaration, the Arab League also called for a UN peacekeeping force to be deployed in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank until a two-state solution can be negotiated, and for the UN Security Council to set a time limit for that political process.

Articles & Reports

ICDI A Day After for Gaza?, Diplomacy Now 5 November 2024

Jonathan Lincoln How to Keep the Peace in Gaza, Foreign Affairs 4 September 2024

Larry Garber A Palestinian-led Approach for Gaza’s Day After, Middle East Institute 23 July 2024

Sanaa Alsarghali Navigating Uncertainty: Reforming Palestinian Institutions through Constitutional Reform amid War, Constitution Net 12 July 2024

James Jeffrey The Gaza Ceasefire Proposal Could Still Resolve the Israel-Hamas Conflict, Wilson Center 1 July 2024

David Petraeus, Meghan O’Sullivan, Richard Fontaine Israel’s War of Regime Change Is Repeating America’s Mistakes, Foreign Affairs 17 June 2024

Larry Garber Evaluating Plans for the Day After, Middle East Institute 12 June 2024

Enzo Cannizzaro The Strange Story of the ‘Conditional’ Admission of the State of Palestine to the United Nations, EJIL:Talk! 11 June 2024

Nabeel Khoury A Dark Chapter in the Middle East, ICDI: Diplomacy Now 8 June 2024

Sam Husseini The UN’s Last Chance to Redeem Itself on Gaza, ICDI: Diplomacy Now 8 June 2024

Nabil Fahmy For the Day After, a 3-Phase Gaza Plan toward a Two State Solution, Al-Monitor 28 May 2024

Dayton et al. Plan for Postwar Gaza, Wilson Center Report 7 May 2024

Dawn Clancy Is the UN Failing in Gaza?, ICDI: Diplomacy Now 5 May 2024

Brown et al. Why an Interim Constitution Could Help Palestine, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 8 April 2024

Leon Hadar The Day After in Gaza: Bridging the American and Israeli Visions, Foreign Policy Research Institute 13 March 2024

Lewis Libby The Day After: A Plan for Gaza, Hudson Institute 7 March 2024

Ibrahim Awad Security and Peace After the War in Gaza, Cairo Review of Global Affairs Winter 2024

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen Plan for Gaza’s Future Highlights the Challenges that Lie Ahead, USIP 29 February 2024

Kristian Ulrichsen Saudia Arabia May Be Taking Center Stage in Post-Gaza Peace, Arab Center Washington DC 28 February 2024

Carnegie Endowment Governing Gaza After the War: The International Perspectives, Carnegie: Commentary 26 February 2024

Carnegie Endowment Governing Gaza After the War: The Regional Perspectives, Carnegie: Commentary 16 February 2024

Carnegie Endowment Governing Gaza After the War: Palestinian Debates, Carnegie: Commentary 9 February 2024

Dennis Ross The Road to Peace in Gaza, The Washington Institute 5 February 2024

Carnegie Endowment Governing Gaza After the War: The Israeli Perspectives, Carnegie: Commentary 1 February 2024

Hella Pick Baroness Ashton: The People of Gaza must be Given a Better Future, Prospect 4 January 2024

Sanam Vakil, Neil Quillam Arab states must act now and plan for the day after the war in Gaza, Chatham House 23 January 2024

Julien Tourreille, Charles-Philippe David Why we should consider a transitional administration for Gaza, The Conversation 12 December 2023

Marc Weller Gaza Won’t End Up Like East Timor or Kosovo, Foreign Policy 29 November 2023

Amr Hamzawy, Nathan Brown Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 17 November 2023

Rob McLaughlin After the Conflict: A UN Transitional Administration in Gaza, Articles of War 17 November 2023

Nathan Brown There Might be No Day After in Gaza, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 3 November 2023

Salam Fayyad A Plan for Peace in Gaza, Asharq Al-Awsat 28 October 2023

RAND Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, RAND Report 10 February 2021

RAND The Arc: A Formal Structure for a Palestinian State, RAND Report 19 May 2011

RAND Helping a Palestinian State Succeed: Key Findings, RAND Report 29 May 2007

RAND Building a Successful Palestinian State, RAND Report 29 May 2007

RAND Building a Successful Palestinian State: Security, RAND Report 23 January 2006

 

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